Wheat Market Sees Mixed Trade: Winter Wheat Down, Spring Wheat Up

Wheat markets presented a mixed picture in early Thursday trading. Winter wheat futures recorded losses of 3 to 5 cents, while spring wheat showed an upward trend. The wheat complex had led a notable bull rally on Wednesday, with front-month contracts posting double-digit gains.

In Wednesday's trading, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat contracts saw strong advances, rising 11 to 17 cents for nearby months and 5 to 9 cents for deferred contracts. Kansas City Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat futures gained between 10.5 and 18.75 cents, and Minneapolis (MPLS) spring wheat closed with a premium of 9.75 to 13.25 cents. As of Thursday morning, the July 2026 CBOT wheat contract was trading down 3.75 cents, and the September 2026 CBOT wheat contract was down 4.25 cents, while the July 2026 Minneapolis spring wheat contract climbed 4.5 cents. Market participants note that a preliminary decline of 2,912 contracts in open interest suggests some short covering activity.

This mixed performance in wheat prices creates an uncertain atmosphere in the markets, with investors and traders awaiting the next significant data release. Export Sales data, due to be updated on Thursday, is closely watched, with analysts expecting sales between 300,000 and 700,000 metric tons for the 2026/27 marketing year. Furthermore, estimates from FranceAgriMer indicate that France's wheat ending stocks are projected to reach 3.5 million metric tons, an increase of 0.22 million metric tons from May's estimates.

In a broader economic and political context, a potential peace deal between the United States and Iran, which is exerting downward pressure on crude oil prices, is also influencing the broader commodity markets. This situation could alter demand dynamics for agricultural commodities like wheat. Meanwhile, weather factors such as abundant rainfall in the U.S. Corn Belt and below-normal temperatures point to strong early crop development. However, despite lower winter wheat production forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), ample international supplies and competitive prices from rival countries are limiting the potential for a significant rally in wheat prices.

Analysts and market observers caution that volatility may persist in wheat markets in the coming period. The upcoming Juneteenth holiday, which will close markets on Friday, could affect Thursday's trading volumes and price movements. Global supply and demand dynamics, particularly the approaching harvests in the Black Sea region and upcoming acreage reports from Canada, will remain a key focus for the market. In the long term, geopolitical developments and evolving weather patterns are expected to play a crucial role in determining the direction of wheat prices.