Wheat Futures Mostly Higher at Midday, May Contract Faces Delivery Pressure

Wheat futures were trading mostly higher at midday, with Chicago soft red winter (SRW) contracts mixed and the May CBOT contract down about 3.5 cents as delivery notices accumulated—312 notices were reported against the May contract overnight.

Kansas City hard red winter (KC HRW) futures showed gains of roughly a nickel in nearby contracts, while Minneapolis spring wheat moved only fractionally. Market commentary cited weekly export commitments near 24.859 million tonnes (MMT), roughly 102% of the USDA projection, and the U.S. flour milling (NASS) data showing 222.4 million bushels ground in January–March, underscoring the demand backdrop.

Price action appeared driven by month‑end delivery dynamics: heavy first‑notice activity on the May contract prompted profit‑taking in near‑expiring positions even as deferred months held modest gains. May CBOT wheat was trading near $6.20 per bushel intraday, with July and later contracts showing relative strength. CFTC positioning data indicated managed money returned to a net long in CBT wheat futures and options, a factor that can amplify short‑term swings.

In the wider fundamental context, large parts of the U.S. Plains remain dry into the near term, supporting a bullish structural case for hard red winter wheat, while increased Black Sea export prospects and competitive supplies exert bearish pressure on U.S. competitiveness. Weather developments and export demand are therefore the primary near‑term price drivers.

Analysts say the market will watch USDA weekly export sales, CFTC positioning and weather updates closely in the coming sessions. With May delivery windows closing, volatility may ease in front‑month contracts, but seasonal planting, crop conditions and global trade flows will determine the medium‑term direction for wheat prices. Market participants are positioning for a data‑driven period ahead.