US stock futures jump; Iran peace hopes push oil lower

US stock futures climbed in early trading as renewed hopes for a U.S.–Iran peace agreement boosted risk appetite, while oil prices and the dollar retreated. Traders welcomed the prospect that a deal could ease supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, though uncertainty over timing kept sentiment cautious.

Market moves showed clear differentiation: Nasdaq futures were up about 0.9% and S&P 500 futures rose roughly 0.6%, with Dow futures also trading higher. Brent and WTI crude futures posted notable declines as investors pared positions that had been hedging conflict-related supply risks. Comments from U.S. President Donald Trump advising his representatives not to rush a deal added a degree of caution to the initial optimism.

The developments supported global risk-on flows while triggering sharp moves in commodities. Oil's slide weighed on energy stocks, whereas the softer dollar provided relief for emerging market currencies and equity markets. Still, markets remained sensitive to any reversal given the crucial role of the Strait of Hormuz in global energy flows and the lack of confirmed timelines for its reopening.

In the broader macro context, the months-long conflict had pushed energy prices up and reshaped rate expectations as central banks monitored inflation risks. A verified peace deal could ease supply concerns and temper inflationary pressure, with downstream implications for monetary policy; however analysts stress that detailed, verifiable diplomatic steps are needed before pricing in a sustained downshift in energy risk premia.

Analysts expect near-term volatility to remain elevated as investors weigh headlines against fundamentals. Market participants will closely monitor official statements about the Strait of Hormuz, oil inventory data and central bank commentary. If the peace process is confirmed with concrete implementation measures, energy prices could correct further and risk assets may see additional gains; absent confirmation, rapid reversals remain a realistic scenario.