US Claims Secret Oil Mission in Strait of Hormuz Amid Iran Tensions

US President Donald Trump has announced a "secret mission" in the Strait of Hormuz, claiming it enabled hundreds of millions of barrels of oil to reach global markets despite Iran's blockade. This assertion escalates geopolitical tensions in the region and further deepens the ongoing uncertainty in global energy markets. Speaking from the Oval Office on Wednesday and in posts on his Truth Social platform, Trump stated that the US military had escorted over 200 commercial ships, facilitating the safe passage of more than 100 million barrels of oil through the strait in recent months.

According to Trump's statements, under the "secret mission," tankers were allegedly escorted through the strait at night with their transmitters turned off to avoid detection. While US Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed in a congressional hearing that the US military had assisted with some oil shipments, he stated he was unaware of the millions of barrels of oil or the specific secret mission details cited by Trump. However, an advisory from INTERTANKO, the world's largest tanker trade association, corroborated a "tightly controlled nighttime passage system" operating along the Omani coast in close coordination with the US Navy. This system involves vessels providing transit timings and waypoints to US forces, with movements often conducted at night and with Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders switched off.

Iran's substantial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, 2026, has led to severe disruptions in global oil supply, causing Brent crude oil prices to surge past $100 and peak at $126 per barrel in March 2026. While Trump claimed the secret mission helped moderate global oil prices below $250 a barrel, other sources indicate prices have been hovering around $90-110. Market analysts like JPMorgan suggest that clandestine flows and alternative routes, such as Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and the UAE's Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, have prevented prices from soaring even higher. Nevertheless, global oil inventories continue to deplete at a record pace due to the ongoing disruptions, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) data.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical energy chokepoint, through which approximately 20% of the world's seaborne oil trade and 20% of LNG passed before the conflict. Asian markets, particularly China and India, are highly dependent on this strait. The current tensions are part of a broader geopolitical context stemming from failed nuclear negotiations between the US, Israel, and Iran. Iran views its control over the strait as a powerful bargaining chip and employs information operations to exert political and economic pressure on the United States. Trump's threats to seize Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export terminal, have further escalated the rhetoric in the region.

Analysts warn that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a prolonged inventory deficit and sustained price strength in global oil markets. Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) forecasts Brent crude to average approximately $110/bbl in the second half of 2026 and remain above $100/bbl until the third quarter of 2027. JPMorgan cautions that if the strait does not substantially reopen soon, the disparity between current prices and what supply-demand dynamics dictate will quickly diminish, leading to price increases. Each additional month of disruption could add roughly $10-$15/bbl to average Brent prices. The market may also retain a lasting geopolitical risk premium even after normal shipping patterns resume.