Turkey's Export Expectation Index Rises in Q3

The results of the Foreign Trade Expectation Survey (FTES) for the third quarter of 2026, published by the Turkish Ministry of Trade, revealed a significant improvement in expectations within Turkey's export sector. Accordingly, the export expectation index rose by 2.4 points compared to the previous quarter, reaching 101.5. An index value above 100 indicates that leading firms in foreign trade anticipate an increase in export volume. During the same period, the import expectation index decreased by 2.2 points to 102.7.

A closer look at the survey details shows that the increase in the export expectation index was driven by positive developments in expectations for export volume, export orders, and export unit prices for the next three months. However, assessments regarding currently registered export order levels had a slightly dampening effect on the index. The decline in the import expectation index was primarily influenced by decreased expectations for import unit prices and current import order levels. Compared to the same period last year, the export expectation index saw a 4-point decrease, while the import expectation index recorded a more significant drop of 12.1 points.

Index values above 100 generally signal increasing foreign trade expectations, creating a positive sentiment in the markets. This rise in export expectations serves as a crucial indicator for the Turkish economy, aligning with signs of a global demand recovery. Especially for manufacturing exporters, these figures could lead to a positive impact on production and capacity utilization rates. A sustained upward trend in exports has the potential to contribute positively to the country's current account balance.

Trade Minister Ömer Bolat emphasized that an index above 100 clearly demonstrates optimism regarding export expectations. Minister Bolat stated that among the countries where Turkish exporting firms plan to initiate exports for the first time in the next three months, the United States ranks first, followed by Australia in second place, and Egypt in third. This indicates that Turkey's strategies to diversify its export markets and open up to new geographies are continuing. Furthermore, with Turkey's trade deficit having widened to $10.4 billion in June 2026, this increase in export expectations is critically important for the future foreign trade balance.

Market analysts suggest that this rise in export expectations indicates that the Turkish economy maintains its potential for external expansion despite global uncertainties. The index reaching 101.5 could have positive effects, particularly on foreign exchange earnings and the employment market. In the upcoming period, developments in global trade volume and geopolitical risks will be key factors influencing the realization of these expectations. Firms' strategies to target new markets and their expectations regarding export unit prices offer important clues for sustainable growth.