Strait of Hormuz: U.S. and Iran have not backed 45-day ceasefire plan

Regional envoys from Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey circulated a draft proposal calling for a 45-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but neither the United States nor Iran has formally backed the plan, leaving its prospects uncertain.

According to officials briefed on the matter, the draft was delivered to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and to U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff as a confidence-building mechanism intended to provide a window for negotiations. Despite the outreach, both capitals have refrained from public acceptance; Tehran has reiterated conditions including reparations and guarantees against future attacks, while Washington has tied any ceasefire consideration to reopening of the strait.

Markets reacted quickly: oil benchmarks experienced renewed upward pressure and equity markets traded unevenly as traders priced the possibility of an extended disruption to Persian Gulf flows. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical maritime chokepoint for global energy, and uncertainty over tanker movements and infrastructure attacks has kept risk premia on crude futures elevated.

The diplomatic push occurs against a backdrop of heightened military activity and public threats from U.S. leadership, notably a timeline set by President Trump for reopening the strait. Those deadlines, combined with periodic strikes on energy facilities, complicate a negotiated compromise; regional mediators emphasize a stepwise approach but face limited leverage amid mutual distrust.

Analysts expect that if mediators can secure concrete, verifiable confidence-building measures — such as phased reopening of shipping lanes and third-party monitoring — markets may calm; absent that, elevated oil prices and broader economic knock-on effects remain likely. Short-term indicators to watch include any official acceptances of the draft, changes in tanker transits through the strait, and near-term moves in Brent and WTI futures.