Strait of Hormuz: Tanker traffic may take weeks or months to normalise

Tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen sharply after recent strikes and mounting security threats, leaving commercial traffic at a fraction of normal levels as shipowners opt to anchor or reroute.

AIS and satellite monitoring show daily transits dropped by roughly 90% or more in early March, with hundreds of vessels waiting outside the choke point; insurers and operators report a spike in war-risk premiums and charter rates as vessels avoid passage.

The interruption has had immediate effects on energy markets: Brent and WTI futures rallied as physical flows tightened, while gold and other safe havens attracted flows amid higher uncertainty. Regional production curbs and saturated onshore storage mean that even if transit resumes quickly, restoring regular shipments and refinery operations will take additional time.

In a wider economic and geopolitical context, the Strait of Hormuz is a strategic chokepoint for crude, LNG and other commodities; disruption forces trade to longer, costlier routes and amplifies inflationary pressures through energy and freight channels. Normalisation requires not only a ceasefire or security guarantee but also the return of insurance capacity and the logistical unwinding of the backlog — steps that can extend the timeline to weeks or months.

Analysts advise markets to price in sustained volatility: scenarios range from a gradual reopening with months-long adjustments to longer disruptions that keep risk premia elevated. Investors and energy firms are therefore reassessing hedge strategies, inventory management and counterparty exposures while monitoring diplomatic and military developments closely.