Strait of Hormuz Shipping Nears Standstill Amid Tanker Attacks, Tensions

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for approximately one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, has significantly slowed down due to recent tanker attacks and heightened geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. Maritime tracking data reveals that the number of commercial vessels transiting the strait has plunged to near-record lows in recent days, placing substantial pressure on global energy supply chains and increasing market uncertainty.

Tensions escalated in February 2026 with US and Israeli air strikes against Iran, to which Iran retaliated by issuing warnings forbidding passage, attacking merchant ships, and laying sea mines. The latest incidents include reports from the United Arab Emirates that three vessels operated by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) were attacked last week. According to ship tracking firm Kpler, only two to three vessels transited the strait on Friday, August 14, with crude oil shipments appearing to grind to a near standstill. This figure is drastically lower than the pre-conflict average of 130 to 140 vessels per day.

The slowdown has had a palpable impact on global energy markets. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicated a 10.1 million barrels per day (bpd) drop in global oil supply in March, marking the largest recorded supply disruption. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted that the flow of petroleum liquids through the Strait of Hormuz declined from 21.6 million bpd in Q4 2025 to 4.9 million bpd in Q2 2026. With escalating security risks in the region, marine insurance premiums have also surged, increasing shipping costs and prompting vessel owners to consider longer, more expensive alternative routes.

These developments are further complicated by stalled negotiations between the US and Iran. The United States has indicated it could maintain a naval blockade against Iran indefinitely and pledged new economic measures, while Iran has set conditions for reopening the strait, including the lifting of the blockade, sanctions, and war compensation. The conflict is not confined to the Strait of Hormuz alone, as Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait create a dual chokepoint threat to global supply chains.

Analysts and market experts anticipate that the unstable situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not be resolved in the short term. Torbjorn Solvedt, principal Middle East analyst with risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, stated that Iran's ability to restrict shipping through the strait is its main source of leverage in negotiations. Assessments from Lloyd's List suggest that the impact on the broader freight market will depend on how long the strait remains constrained. This ongoing volatility is expected to continue driving energy price fluctuations and poses long-term adverse effects on global trade and economic growth. Arsenio Dominguez, head of the UN International Maritime Organization (IMO), emphasized that continuing attacks escalate tensions and threaten global supply chains on which everyone depends.