SpaceX Valuations: A Trillion-Dollar Chasm Between Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley

Following the expiration of the quiet period after SpaceX's initial public offering, two of its prominent underwriters, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have released their inaugural analyst reports to investors. While both Wall Street giants issued "buy" ratings for SpaceX shares, a potential chasm exceeding $1 trillion in their long-term valuation models has drawn significant attention. This situation once again highlights the complexities of valuing innovative companies in high-growth sectors such as space technology and artificial intelligence.

In its report, Goldman Sachs, led by analyst Eric Sheridan, set a price target of $205 for SpaceX (SPCX), whereas Morgan Stanley's team, led by analyst Adam Jonas, announced a more ambitious target price of $300. While this direct price target difference does not create a $1 trillion chasm, Morgan Stanley's "blue-sky" scenario, projecting a market capitalization that could reach $8 trillion with a share price of $600, demonstrates the significant divergence in perceived long-term potential. Goldman Sachs anticipates SpaceX's total revenue to reach $474 billion by 2030, with a substantial portion of $322 billion coming from the company's artificial intelligence operations. Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, forecasts the company's revenues could exceed $3.3 trillion by 2040, outlining a much more aggressive and long-term growth trajectory.

These valuation discrepancies stem from the banks' differing assumptions regarding the future success of SpaceX's various business segments. Goldman Sachs primarily focuses on the immense growth potential of the company's artificial intelligence (AI) division, xAI, while Morgan Stanley evaluates the new markets created by the integration of space technologies like Starlink and Starship with AI from a broader perspective. Morgan Stanley's revenue expectation of over $3.3 trillion by 2040 is based on the belief that Starlink will create entirely new addressable markets for global connectivity and physical AI services.

These analyst reports, released after the quiet period, significantly influenced the market performance of SpaceX shares. The company's shares, which began trading at $135 after its June 2026 IPO and reached a market capitalization of approximately $2.1 trillion on its first trading day, have come under investor scrutiny with these new analyst perspectives. Furthermore, SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 Index triggered passive fund inflows, adding further upward pressure on its share price.

This wide range in SpaceX's valuation reflects the inherent high-risk and high-reward potential of investing in future technologies such as space exploration, satellite internet, and artificial intelligence. Factors like the commercial success of the company's Starship rocket, Starlink's global coverage, and xAI's position in the AI market form the core of these valuation models. However, the fact that these technologies are not yet fully proven at a commercial scale leads to divergent expectations among analysts.

Analysts and market observers note that these initial reports lay a crucial foundation for SpaceX's future performance and its perception as a public company. In the coming period, key performance indicators such as Starlink subscriber numbers, successful Starship launches, and the AI unit's revenue generation capacity will be the main factors determining whether this valuation chasm narrows or deepens. Investors will continue to carefully monitor the balance between this innovative company's long-term potential and short-term market realities.