SpaceX Stock Soars After First Lockup Expiration, Defying Sell-Off Fears

SpaceX (SPCX) shares, the aerospace and satellite internet giant, displayed a robust performance, contrary to market expectations, following the expiration of its first initial public offering (IPO) lockup period on August 6, 2026. Despite anticipations of selling pressure from insiders, the company's stock rose by 7% on Thursday and extended its gains by up to 12.6% midday Friday, marking one of its best performances in weeks.

The lockup expiration made approximately 911.5 million shares eligible for sale, representing about 7% of the total outstanding stock and exceeding the 639 million shares sold in the IPO. This event had the potential to significantly increase market supply. However, after an intraday dip to $105 on Thursday, the shares rebounded to close 2.6% higher. SpaceX went public in June at $135 per share, briefly surging past $225 and reaching a market capitalization close to $2.99 trillion. However, the stock had faced pressure after its first quarterly earnings report, primarily due to substantial capital expenditures on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.

Several factors contributed to this positive market reaction. Analysts suggest that the potential selling pressure associated with the lockup expiration was largely priced into the stock beforehand. Furthermore, not all eligible shares were sold, with many insiders opting to hold onto their stakes, driven by their belief in SpaceX's long-term mission. A potential short squeeze, as bearish traders covered positions that anticipated a decline, may also have fueled the rally. Investment firms like Argus Research upgraded the stock to 'Buy,' setting a price target of $160.

SpaceX's business model encompasses a wide range of activities, including Falcon 9 rocket launch services, the Starlink satellite internet network, and government/commercial space contracts. The company reported strong second-quarter results, with revenue increasing by 92% year-over-year to $7.81 billion and adjusted EBITDA surging by 191% to $3.54 billion. This robust operational performance, despite massive spending of $18.4 billion on AI infrastructure, bolstered investor confidence. The company also announced plans to invest $16.8 billion with partner Tesla (TSLA) in the initial phase of the Terafab chip-making project in Grimes County, Texas.

Looking ahead, volatility for SpaceX shares may persist. Following this initial tranche in August, additional lockup periods are scheduled to expire in September, October, and December. A significant release of shares is expected on December 8, 2026, when the full 180-day lockup period concludes. Notably, founder Elon Musk's approximately 6.4 billion shares will remain locked until June 2027. Analysts anticipate that if the company continues to meet its growth objectives and improves profitability, its shares could navigate these upcoming supply dynamics successfully.