SpaceX Stock Plunges Over 40% From Peak After Nasdaq-100 Inclusion

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) shares have seen a substantial decline in recent weeks, despite the company's rapid inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index following its historic initial public offering (IPO) in June. The stock's downward trend was exacerbated by the last-second abort of its Starship rocket's planned test flight on Thursday, pushing SpaceX's share price below its IPO level of $135.

Led by Elon Musk, SpaceX made its market debut on the Nasdaq Exchange (NASDAQ: SPCX) on June 12, 2026, with an IPO price of $135 per share. This marked the largest IPO in history, valuing the company at approximately $1.77 trillion. Nasdaq revised its rules to facilitate SpaceX's swift entry into the index, allowing it to join the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, 2026. Initially, the shares surged, briefly climbing above $225 to an all-time high. However, this rally was short-lived, and the stock entered a significant downtrend since its Nasdaq-100 inclusion. The 13th test flight of Starship, scheduled for Thursday at the Starbase facility in Texas, was automatically aborted mere seconds before liftoff due to engine issues. CEO Elon Musk stated on X that some engines failed to ignite, and two Raptor engines would be replaced to ensure a successful flight.

This development further accelerated the decline in SpaceX shares. On Friday, the stock traded below $124, approximately 8% below its IPO price of $135 and over 40% down from its all-time peak of $225.64. While inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 was expected to trigger passive buying from index-tracking funds, this demand has not been sufficient to offset the broader selling pressure on the shares. The market had hoped SpaceX's IPO would reopen the door for multi-billion dollar technology IPOs, but the company's falling share price has dampened investor enthusiasm for the next generation of mega-IPOs.

Concerns over SpaceX's high valuation and unprofitability continue to weigh on the market. The company reported a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025, despite generating $18.7 billion in revenue. Analysts suggest that the current high valuation already prices in ambitious future projects, such as the Starlink satellite internet network, space-based artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, and AI product development. The relatively small public float (less than 5% of shares sold in the IPO) is also seen as a factor that could amplify price swings.

Analysts are divided on SpaceX stock. While some brokerages have initiated coverage with 'buy' ratings and price targets as high as $300, others argue that much of the company's growth is already reflected in the current share price, advising caution. Research firms like Morningstar have even warned that the shares could be worth less than half their IPO price, indicating a limited margin for error if Starlink or Starship projects disappoint. Moving forward, the success of Starship test flights and the global expansion of Starlink will be critical factors in determining the stock's future performance.