SpaceX Shares Decline: Average Post-IPO Buyer Nears Underwater

Following its historic initial public offering (IPO) on Nasdaq, SpaceX shares have experienced a decline as initial enthusiasm gave way to market realities. The stock fell approximately 7% on Thursday, dropping to $178, leaving the average post-IPO buyer nearly at breakeven or even underwater. This development has raised concerns regarding the market performance of the space technology giant, which recently became one of the world's most valuable companies.

Led by Elon Musk, SpaceX made history with its IPO on June 12, 2026, when it began trading on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. The offering, priced at $135 per share and raising $75 billion, valued the company at $1.77 trillion. In its initial trading days, shares opened at $150 and quickly surged, peaking above $192 and even reaching the $220s. However, this upward momentum could not be sustained; shares retreated approximately 5.7% to $190 on Wednesday, followed by additional declines of 6.4% to 10% on Thursday, bringing the price down to the $173-$178 range.

SpaceX's market capitalization briefly surpassed $2 trillion, and even $2.97 trillion, during its post-IPO rally, outperforming Amazon (AMZN) and approaching Microsoft (MSFT). Yet, the recent declines indicate that investors are beginning to make a more realistic assessment of this colossal valuation's sustainability. Factors such as the company's capital-intensive artificial intelligence expansion and a reported loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 have amplified pressure on the stock price. A similar trend was observed in the shares of other U.S. space companies, which saw declines ranging from 3% to 7%.

SpaceX's IPO garnered significant attention due to Elon Musk's strong influence and the company's ambitious vision in space technology and artificial intelligence. The company has made strategic acquisitions, including xAI and Anysphere (Cursor), to bolster its position in the AI sector. However, some analytical firms, such as Morningstar, highlight the risks associated with the company trading at high multiples, such as a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 141 times its 2025 revenues. The substantial allocation of up to 30% of IPO shares to retail investors also played a significant role in the stock's post-market debut volatility.

Analysts hold diverse views regarding the future of SpaceX shares. While Morningstar presents a more conservative fair value estimate of $62-$63 per share, investment banks like Oppenheimer have raised their price target from $190 to $250, citing the company's strategic moves in artificial intelligence. Market experts caution that new selling pressure could emerge as the lock-up periods for pre-IPO investors expire. This period will serve as a crucial test to determine how well SpaceX's market valuation aligns with its underlying fundamentals.