Soybeans Show Firmer Midday Trading Amid Robust Demand and USDA Reports

Soybean futures markets exhibited an upward trend at midday, driven by the impact of U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports and strong export demand from China. Futures contracts gained between 2 and 5 cents, while the cmdtyView national average cash bean price increased by 4.5 cents to $11.45 1/4. Soymeal futures rose by $2.60, though soy oil traded down 37 points. August futures contracts are set to expire on Friday.

This market activity was underpinned by various USDA reports. The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced a private export sale of 125,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year. Weekly Export Sales data indicated old crop sales of just 75,119 metric tons, falling short of analyst expectations, while new crop sales reached 1.76 million metric tons, within the 1.5-1.9 million metric ton estimate range, marking the second-largest sale for the marketing year. Soymeal sales were recorded at 218,377 metric tons, with soy oil bookings seeing net cancellations of 6,005 metric tons for 2025/26 and sales of 4,354 metric tons for 2026/27.

Crop Production data released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimated the 2026 soybean yield at 52.7 bushels per acre. Planted acreage increased by 1.4 million acres to 86.8 million acres, with harvested acres totaling 85.8 million acres. This expansion pushed total production to 4.519 billion bushels, exceeding the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) projection by 44 million bushels. This scenario has generated expectations for a record soybean harvest in 2026.

Further details from the WASDE report also shaped the market outlook. Old crop ending stocks were set at 325 million bushels, a decrease of 5 million bushels from the previous month due to increased crush volumes. Projected ending stocks for the 2026/27 period are anticipated to rise by 10 million bushels from July's figures to 320 million bushels, driven by increased production. Globally, 2026/27 ending stocks saw a marginal increase of 0.04 million metric tons from July, reaching 124.21 million metric tons. In South America, Brazil's old crop production rose by 0.5 million metric tons to 180.5 million metric tons, while Argentina's production was cut by 0.5 million metric tons to 49.5 million metric tons.

Analysts and market expectations suggest that the robust demand outlook will continue to support prices. Increasing crush volumes and rising consumption in renewable diesel are keeping soy oil demand buoyant. Soymeal consumption is projected to outpace crush volumes, potentially increasing reliance on imports to meet demand. These factors collectively create an upward potential in the soybean market despite expectations of a record harvest.