Soybeans Open Week Strong on China Demand, Favorable Crop Progress

The soybean market concluded the first trading day of the week with overall gains. Futures contracts for most maturities, excluding the nearby August contract, rose between 3 and 7.5 cents, while the August contract saw a decline of 3.25 cents. This upward movement was interpreted as a general market recovery signal.

The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price increased by 6 cents, reaching $11.47 1/2. Soymeal futures advanced by 20 cents to $1.20, and soy oil futures posted gains of 101 to 157 points. According to the weekly Crop Progress data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), 88% of the U.S. soybean crop was blooming by August 2, with 62% setting pods. This pace is 7 percentage points ahead of the five-year average. Crop condition ratings remained steady at 63% good/excellent.

This rally in market prices was supported by fresh buying from China and June crush data from the U.S. falling slightly below expectations. Data from the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FGIS) indicated that soybean export shipments for the week ending July 30 totaled 343,941 metric tons (12.64 million bushels). This figure was 6% lower than the previous week and 45.3% below the same week last year. The top export destinations included Indonesia (78,702 MT), Mexico (74,245 MT), and Germany (58,129 MT). Marketing year exports for 2025/26 stood at 39.35 million metric tons (1.446 billion bushels), marking a 17.8% decrease compared to the same period last year.

Reports over the weekend suggested that China purchased 14-16 cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Friday. The USDA confirmed a significant portion of these purchases this morning, reporting sales of 488,000 metric tons to China for the 2026/27 marketing year and 136,150 metric tons to unknown destinations. This underscores China's pivotal role in global soybean demand. Meanwhile, USDA Fats & Oils data showed 217.8 million bushels of soybeans crushed in June. While this was slightly below the average estimate of 218.3 million bushels, it represented a 2.21% increase from May and was 10.61% higher than the same month last year. Soybean oil stocks were tallied at 2.096 billion pounds.

StoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production forecast by 0.5 million metric tons to 183.1 million metric tons. This could influence the global supply outlook and potentially exert pressure on future market pricing. However, the above-average crop development in the U.S. and robust demand from China are prominent supportive factors for prices. Market participants will continue to closely monitor weather conditions, global demand dynamics, and new harvest estimates from major producing countries in the period ahead.