Soybean Prices Surge: Weather Conditions and China Demand Fuel Gains

Soybean futures contracts commenced trading with a strong start on Monday morning, posting gains of 5 to 7 cents. This upward movement continues the significant rally observed last week, with September futures closing the week with a 55.5 cent surge, while November contracts advanced by 43 cents.

During the previous Friday's session, soybean contracts also closed with fractional gains, extending up to 16.75 cents in some deferred maturities. Open interest saw an increase of 9,921 contracts on Friday, and the national average cash bean price rose by 13.75 cents to $11.45 3/4. Soybean meal futures climbed by $2.80 to $3.80 across most contracts, with September soybean meal rallying $14.90 last week. Soybean oil futures were up by 11 to 54 points, and September soybean oil closed the week 369 points higher.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced a private export sale of 136,000 metric tons (MT) of soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year on Monday morning, signaling a positive sentiment in the market. This development indicates continued demand from China for U.S. soybeans. Furthermore, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) suggests little to no precipitation for key growing areas spanning the Dakotas, Kansas, and parts of Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri. These hot and dry weather conditions are providing support for corn and soybean futures. According to Commitment of Traders data, speculative traders added 37,479 contracts to their net long position in soybean futures and options in the week ending July 7, bringing the net long to 68,679 contracts.

As of July 13, 2026, soybean prices surged to 1,205.86 US cents/bushel, marking a 0.78% increase from the previous day. Over the past month, soybean prices have climbed by 7.74%, and are up 20.47% compared to the same period last year. July 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.96 1/2 on Friday, up 16 3/4 cents, and rose an additional 7 1/4 cents on Monday. November 2026 contracts, meanwhile, closed at $11.90 3/4 on Friday, up 9 1/4 cents, and gained another 5 1/2 cents on Monday.

The soybean market is bolstered by several factors, including the rising global demand for plant-based proteins, the expanding use of soybeans in biofuel production, and the increasing adoption of genetically modified (GM) soybean varieties that offer higher yields. Soybean oil accounted for 46% of U.S. biofuel feedstocks in 2024, highlighting its growing importance in this sector. Global protein demand continues to position soybean meal as a core component in poultry and swine rations. China remains a crucial player, responsible for 70% of total global soybean imports. Discussions regarding the U.S. Commerce Ministry's plans to lower tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods, including soybeans, are also influencing market sentiment.

Analysts and market expectations project soybean prices to trade at 1210.93 US cents/bushel by the end of this quarter and reach 1261.95 US cents/bushel within 12 months. However, some market experts suggest that the market might be losing momentum after the recent rally, with Monday's gains largely driven by technical buying. Moving forward, weather reports and news from China will continue to play a critical role in shaping the direction of the soybean market. The global soybean market is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4% from 2024 to 2030, reaching an estimated value of $258.12 billion by 2030.