Soybean Futures See Mixed Movement Ahead of Holiday Weekend

Soybean markets experienced mixed movements as they headed into the US Independence Day holiday weekend. Front-month contracts closed with losses ranging from ½ to 5 ½ cents, while back-month contracts saw declines of 1 ½ to 4 ¼ cents. August futures managed to hold on for just a tick loss this week, but November futures were down by 8 ½ cents. Conversely, the cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price edged up 3 ¼ cents to $10.89 ½.

The market's performance was influenced by the latest weekly Export Sales report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The report indicated a marketing year low for old crop bean sales, totaling only 41,786 metric tons in the week of June 25. China emerged as a significant buyer, accounting for 65,400 metric tons, with an additional 68,000 metric tons switched from unknown destinations. New crop sales were recorded at 182,533 metric tons, a three-week low, yet still 16.89% above the same week last year, with Mexico being the primary buyer at 182,100 metric tons.

In related commodities, soymeal futures showed mixed results, ranging from $1.10 higher to 40 cents lower on the day, with August contracts up $1.30 for the week. Soy Oil futures also displayed a mixed trend, fluctuating between 10 points higher and 14 points lower, as August contracts fell by 305 points this week. Soybean meal sales reached 413,635 metric tons, hitting the higher end of estimates, with 239,147 metric tons for the current marketing year and 174,488 metric tons for 2026/27. Bean oil business, however, saw a net cancellation of 1,517 metric tons, falling short of the expected range.

Markets typically exhibit position squaring tendencies ahead of a holiday, and the weaker export sales report for old crop beans likely contributed to the selling pressure on futures contracts. The uptick in the cash bean price, despite futures losses, might suggest underlying demand or strength in the local market. Specific contract closings saw Jul 26 Soybeans up 5 ½ cents at $11.31 ¾, Aug 26 Soybeans up 3 cents at $11.36 ¼, and Nov 26 Soybeans down 1 ½ cents at $11.47 ¾. Nearby Cash was $10.89 ½, up 3 ¼ cents, and New Crop Cash was $10.88, up 2 ¾ cents.

The upcoming July 4th Independence Day holiday often leads to reduced trading activity and position adjustments. Furthermore, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) 7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) projects rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches across parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska through Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and northern Illinois/Indiana. Much of this rainfall is expected over the next couple of days, followed by a drier start to next week. Very limited totals are anticipated in Missouri through much of the Eastern Corn Belt. These weather patterns can significantly influence crop development and future supply expectations.

Following the holiday, the market is set to resume normal operations on Sunday night. Future soybean price movements will continue to be shaped by updated weather forecasts, crop progress reports, and forthcoming export sales data. The divergent performance across various contracts and related products like soymeal and soy oil reflects a market seeking direction amidst ongoing supply and demand uncertainties and typical seasonal trading patterns.