Shell profits rise as Iran war pushes oil prices higher (Q1 $6.9bn)

Energy major Shell reported adjusted earnings of about $6.9 billion for the first quarter of 2026, driven in large part by higher oil trading and optimisation returns as markets reacted to the crisis in Iran. The company highlighted stronger marketing and trading performance even as some upstream operations were affected.

Shell’s trading update and subsequent results show how volatile commodity markets translated into near-term profitability: spikes in crude prices during late February and March lifted margins, while Shell warned of lower integrated gas output and a potential working-capital outflow linked to elevated inventory and receivables. Analysts had already raised Q1 profit estimates for the group ahead of the full release.

The immediate market impact was clear as global benchmark Brent moved toward multi‑year highs, supporting refining margins and trading revenues across the sector. Share prices of major oil companies reflected the dual forces of higher profit prints and concerns about how much of the windfall would persist once supply and demand conditions normalise.

In the broader context, the Iran conflict and related disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have tightened physical supply and elevated risk premia in energy markets, prompting renewed attention to energy security, inventory positions and alternative supply routes. Shell flagged repairs and operational impacts in the Gulf region among factors weighing on near-term production.

Looking ahead, market participants expect continued volatility: trading desks may keep contributing disproportionately to profit in the short term, but analysts caution that sustainable cash generation will depend on how quickly production losses are mitigated and whether working-capital pressures reverse. Investors will watch Shell’s cash flow, buyback and dividend plans closely as indicators of how much of the Q1 gains are treated as structural improvement versus transitory windfalls.