S&P 500 on 3-week losing streak; futures edge up as oil nears $100

The S&P 500 recorded its third consecutive weekly decline as rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions weighed on risk appetite. On Friday the benchmark pulled back, leaving the index near its lowest closes of the year as investors priced in elevated inflation risk and heightened policy uncertainty.

Energy markets were the focal point: Brent crude climbed above $100 a barrel and traded near $103, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached roughly $98.71 in intraday moves. These spikes reflected disruptions to shipping routes and concerns over constrained regional supply, amplifying inflationary pressures across developed markets.

The move in oil fed through to equities and fixed income. Major U.S. indexes finished the week lower, and long-term Treasury yields rose as investors reassessed real rate prospects. Stock futures showed modest gains in early sessions, suggesting some short-term risk-on positioning, but overall sentiment remained cautious ahead of fresh macro and geopolitical news.

Broad geopolitical factors underpinning the rally in energy prices include intensified activity around Persian Gulf shipping lanes and disruptions that have taken significant barrels-per-day offline. Authorities and international agencies announced coordinated reserve releases and policy options, yet markets continued to price a tight near-term supply outlook. The persistence of these shocks keeps inflation and central bank reaction functions central to asset allocation decisions.

Market strategists expect volatility to remain elevated and recommend scenario-based positioning. Higher energy costs could delay or temper central bank easing, lifting yields and weighing on multiple valuation-sensitive sectors. In the near term, focus will be on incoming economic data, central bank speakers and developments in the energy supply picture; investors are likely to emphasize liquidity management and selective hedging while monitoring earnings for downside risk.