Rocket Lab Stock Under Scrutiny After SpaceX IPO

SpaceX's (SPCX) landmark initial public offering (IPO) on June 12, 2026, has sent ripples across the broader market, significantly impacting other space sector companies. This highly anticipated IPO led to a decline in Rocket Lab (RKLB) shares, as investors reallocated capital from what was once considered a proxy investment for SpaceX directly into the newly public company. This shift resulted in Rocket Lab shedding approximately $20-25 billion from its market capitalization, with its stock retreating as much as 28% from its all-time highs.

Elon Musk's SpaceX made its historic debut on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX on June 12, 2026, marking one of the largest IPOs in history. The company priced its shares at $135 each, raising an estimated $75 billion. This development triggered a classic scenario of capital reallocation, as Rocket Lab had long been viewed as the closest publicly traded counterpart to SpaceX. With SpaceX now public, investors engaged in profit-taking from RKLB, leading to its subsequent dip.

Despite the share price decline, Rocket Lab continues to report strong financial performance. In the first quarter of 2026, the company's revenue surged by 63.5% year-over-year to $200.3 million, marking the first time it crossed the $200 million quarterly revenue threshold. Its backlog reached a record $2.2 billion, indicating robust future demand. GAAP gross margin hit a record 38.2%, while adjusted EBITDA losses narrowed to $11.8 million, showcasing improved operational efficiency. These figures underscore the company's sustained operational momentum and solid underlying fundamentals.

The broader space sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by increased spending on defense, national security, and space-related capabilities. Rocket Lab has diversified its operations beyond launch services, expanding into satellite manufacturing, spacecraft systems, and components, positioning itself as a comprehensive space infrastructure provider. The development of its medium-lift Neutron rocket is considered crucial for its future growth trajectory. Analysts suggest that if SpaceX increasingly focuses on its larger Starship program, Rocket Lab's Neutron could capture a significant share of the medium-lift launch market.

Analysts largely attribute the recent decline in Rocket Lab's stock to market sentiment rather than a deterioration in its fundamentals. Firms like KeyBanc, Stifel, and New Street have upgraded Rocket Lab or raised their price targets, citing the company's strong backlog and the development timeline for Neutron. Furthermore, Rocket Lab's impending inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 Index, effective June 22, is expected to generate passive fund inflows, providing potential support for the stock. The successful launch of the Neutron rocket, anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2026, and the continued securing of commercial contracts are vital for the company's path to profitability and sustained growth.