RBC: Iran Conflict Could Push Oil Above 2022 Highs If It Drags On

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets warn that escalating geopolitical tensions around Iran could trigger a significant shock in global energy markets if the conflict lasts longer than expected. According to the bank, a prolonged confrontation that stretches into the spring could push oil prices above the peaks reached during the 2022 energy crisis.

Military escalation in the Middle East has already injected a strong risk premium into crude markets. Since tensions intensified in late February 2026, Brent crude has experienced sharp volatility, at times approaching triple‑digit levels as traders price in the possibility of supply disruptions.

A key concern for the market is the potential disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes. A significant portion of global crude exports passes through the narrow waterway, meaning any disruption could quickly tighten global supply and accelerate price gains.

Higher oil prices driven by geopolitical risk could also have wider macroeconomic consequences. Sustained increases in energy costs would likely add inflationary pressure globally and complicate the outlook for central bank monetary policy while weighing on economic growth expectations.