Raw milk production falls 4.9%: 21,379,088 tonnes in 2025

Turkey's official statistics agency, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), reports that raw milk production in 2025 declined by 4.9% year-on-year to 21,379,088 tonnes. The release marks a noteworthy contraction in a sector that supplies a wide range of dairy processors and domestic consumption markets.

Breakdowns by animal type show a broad-based decline: cow milk production fell by around 4.0%, buffalo milk plunged by roughly 33.0%, sheep milk decreased by about 11.9%, and goat milk contracted by nearly 29.8%. TÜİK data also indicate that cow milk continues to account for the vast majority of total output and that a significant share of production is directed to processing plants and dairies.

The drop in production may have immediate implications for input costs and procurement strategies across the dairy value chain. Reduced raw milk availability can exert upward pressure on commodity milk prices and squeeze margins for processors that rely on domestic supply, especially for products tied to buffalo or goat milk. Larger dairy processors may respond by adjusting inventories, sourcing strategies or product mixes.

Underlying factors likely include shifts in herd sizes, feed and input costs, seasonal and climatic effects, and producer income dynamics. Historical TÜİK and ministry-level data show that both structural trends and short-term shocks affect annual milk output; the 2025 figures should therefore be read alongside feed price movements and any policy measures aimed at supporting producers.

Market commentators say the near-term outlook hinges on how quickly producers can stabilize herd productivity and whether feed costs moderate. Observers advise following subsequent TÜİK sub-releases, statements from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, and domestic feed commodity prices to assess whether the production decline will translate into sustained price inflation for dairy products or remain a temporary supply-side disturbance.