Prediction markets: White House reviews CFTC rule, Trump backs control

The White House’s regulatory review office has received a proposed rule from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) concerning prediction markets, and President Donald Trump has publicly endorsed the agency’s claim to exclusive federal control over the sector.

The CFTC published an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) in March 2026 seeking comment on how “event contracts” should be regulated and which products might be contrary to the public interest; agency officials say the process aims to clarify scope, market surveillance and anti-manipulation obligations. At the same time the CFTC has taken legal action against several states that have tried to restrict or ban certain prediction-market offerings.

Market operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket could see significant operational changes depending on the rule’s final language: trading venues, permitted contract types and compliance burdens would be affected. The sector’s rapid growth — particularly in sports and political markets — has heightened the dispute between state gaming authorities and the CFTC’s view that these markets are derivatives, not traditional gambling.

Broader concerns shaping the debate include consumer protection, the proper boundaries between state gambling regulators and federal commodities law, and risks of insider trading or market manipulation. Stakeholders from exchanges, sports leagues and legal observers are closely watching how the CFTC’s regulatory framework will address integrity and surveillance standards.

Legal and regulatory advisers say the OIRA review is a procedural milestone: it can accelerate or delay the rulemaking timetable and influence whether the final rule achieves federal preemption of conflicting state measures. Market participants expect continued litigation and potential Congressional oversight even after any final rule is published.