Prediction markets: Kalshi, Polymarket and 26 others banned in Brazil

Brazilian authorities have moved to block access to a group of prediction-market platforms — including Kalshi and Polymarket — after concluding that many of the contracts offered resemble betting rather than financial instruments. The government said the measures aim to protect consumers and curb an unregulated market.

The action rests on Resolution No. 5,298 published by the Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN) on April 24, 2026, which bars the offer and trading of derivative contracts tied to entertainment, political or sporting events in Brazil. The Finance Ministry, citing a technical note from the Secretariat for Prizes and Betting (SPA), instructed the national telecom regulator Anatel to block the listed domains and ordered coordinated steps with financial institutions to cut off suspect payment flows. Officials reported that thousands of irregular sites and hundreds of apps have already been removed in recent enforcement rounds.

Market participants say the immediate effect will be a reduction in local liquidity and user access in Brazil, with some trading volumes likely migrating offshore or to decentralized venues. The move complicates business plans for firms like Kalshi, which operates under CFTC oversight in the U.S., and Polymarket, whose primary venues have often been outside U.S. jurisdiction. Platforms may need to curtail politically or culturally sensitive markets or seek local licensing where feasible.

The Brazilian decision sits within a broader international debate: some regulators treat prediction markets as legitimate tools for price discovery and hedging, while others classify certain contracts as unlicensed gambling. Recent rulings and legislative proposals in several jurisdictions have increased legal uncertainty for operators and raised questions about cross-border enforcement and consumer safeguards.

Looking ahead, analysts expect a period of legal challenges, regulatory clarifications and possible adjustments to product design. Operators may either attempt to obtain the necessary authorizations from SPA or the securities regulator, or face sustained enforcement. For Brazilian regulators, the priorities are consumer protection and preventing the growth of unregulated betting that can contribute to household over-indebtedness — a policy stance that will shape market access and compliance costs for international platforms.