Oil prices rise as Hormuz traffic stays shut despite ceasefire

Oil prices moved higher after expectations that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire would immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz failed to materialize, leaving markets to price a continued geopolitical risk premium. Traders cited ongoing uncertainty over safe passage for tankers as the primary driver of gains.

The development unfolded after a short ceasefire was announced earlier in the week; although the accord included provisions to ease maritime transit, independent ship-tracking firms and news agencies reported that many vessels remained anchored or delayed outside the strait. Reports also emerged that Iran may be seeking to collect transit fees from some vessels, prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to publicly warn Tehran that any such charges must cease immediately.

Market moves were nuanced: futures initially eased on the hope of an opening but then drifted upward as confirmations of resumed, routine tanker transits failed to appear. Benchmark crude contracts recorded intraday gains as traders priced in insurance cost increases, constrained flows and logistical diversion to longer routes or pipeline alternatives. Refining margins and regional fuel spreads also reflected elevated supply risk.

The situation underscores the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz for global energy supplies and the sensitivity of markets to operational disruptions. Even a temporary restriction in traffic forces shippers and insurers to reassess exposure, while producers and consuming nations weigh options including emergency stock releases or coordinated naval escorts. The broader geopolitical backdrop will continue to shape how quickly normal transit levels can be restored.

Analysts say the near-term outlook hinges on verified increases in vessel movements, easing of insurance costs and clear implementation of the ceasefire terms. If traffic normalization proceeds, prices could retreat, but if uncertainty persists or escalates, the market is likely to maintain a premium on crude and refined products into the summer. Investors are advised to monitor maritime traffic data and official confirmations from both sides for decisive signals.