Oil prices rebound as investors track U.S.-Iran peace talks progress

Oil prices rebounded as investors weighed progress — or lack of it — in U.S.-Iran peace talks and ongoing supply disruptions. Brent crude traded near $105.88 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $96.53 during the session.

The move reflected a market that has been driven by headlines: Reuters reported Brent rose about $0.92 (around 1%) and WTI edged up roughly $0.18, though both contracts had seen larger intraday swings. Sources cited in the coverage noted narrowed gaps in talks but continued disagreement over Iran’s uranium stockpile and arrangements for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — issues that keep a supply-risk premium in prices.

Analysts point to stretched physical balances and inventory drawdowns as underpinning the rebound. BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, raised its 2026 dated Brent average forecast to $90 from $81.50 to reflect the supply deficit and the time needed to repair Middle East energy infrastructure; Reuters also flagged that roughly 14 million barrels per day of supply remains affected by the conflict, prolonging tightness. Bloomberg reporting underscored that even if a diplomatic deal is reached, restoration of full flows could take many months, keeping volatility elevated.

Market participants noted that U.S. crude inventory draws and a modest uptick in tanker movements through the Strait had offered some near-term support, but that conflicting headlines about the negotiations continued to produce seesaw price action. Traders remain sensitive to any reports suggesting a quick reopening of shipping lanes; conversely, talk of prolonged disruption or new barriers to transit would lift prices again.

Looking ahead, analysts expect headline-driven volatility to persist. A failure to clinch an agreement would likely keep the supply-risk premium elevated and sustain upside pressure on oil, while a clear, enforceable accord could prompt rapid repricing — although a full return of flows would likely lag any political deal. Investors are advised to monitor diplomatic developments, OPEC+ meeting signals and weekly inventory data to gauge the next directional moves.