Oil: Brent above $100 as Iran de-escalation hopes fade

Brent crude briefly climbed back above $100 a barrel as renewed concerns about supply disruptions in the Gulf pushed a geopolitical risk premium into prices.

The move accelerated after reports of fresh attacks on commercial vessels and tankers in the region, and news that some terminals and shipping routes faced temporary suspensions, prompting traders to reprice the risk of sustained disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. That repricing sent Brent intraday into the low $100s before some profit-taking occurred.

Policy responses and emergency releases of strategic stocks were discussed by governments as a way to ease market stress, but analysts noted such measures are unlikely to fully offset the disruption if Gulf flows remain constrained. International observers, including energy agencies, warned that the current episode could represent one of the largest supply shocks in recent market history.

Financial markets reacted to the oil move with increased volatility: energy and commodity-sensitive sectors underperformed, while safe-haven assets and government bond yields adjusted to higher near-term inflation risk. Equity indices saw downward pressure as investors weighed the implications for growth and central bank policy.

Market strategists say the path for oil now hinges on whether shipping can safely resume and whether diplomatic channels reduce the chance of a prolonged blockade. Several banks have revised forward price scenarios upward on the risk premium, while others caution that any credible de‑escalation would likely see a rapid retracement. Traders are therefore watching both on‑the‑ground developments in the Gulf and policy signals from major consuming and producing nations.