Markets rally after Trump says Iran war could end soon; oil eases

Global markets staged a relief rally after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the campaign in Iran could be nearing an end, comments that reduced an immediate war risk premium and prompted a sharp intraday unwind in energy positions. Reuters reported the president’s remarks, which were widely cited across major news outlets and triggered the initial market response.

The sequence played out as oil, which had spiked amid fears of supply disruption, pulled back substantially in Asian trading — Brent and WTI retraced a portion of prior gains as investors priced in a lower probability of a prolonged closure of key shipping lanes. That move helped risk assets recover some of the losses from the earlier shock, while safe-haven flows into gold and Treasuries moderated.

Regional equity markets led the rebound: benchmarks such as Australia’s S&P/ASX 200, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi posted notable gains on the session, reflecting both the relief in energy costs and renewed appetite for cyclicals. Nevertheless, the session remained volatile as mixed official statements and ongoing military activity kept uncertainty elevated.

In a wider economic context, analysts warn that the conflict’s disruption to shipping and energy flows has already pressured supply chains and raised inflation risks. Several forecasting groups and macro strategists have trimmed growth outlooks and elevated the probability of a U.S. recession if disruptions persist, emphasizing the importance of the war’s duration for policy and market outcomes. Central banks will likely monitor incoming data closely when assessing future interest-rate paths.

Market strategists advise that while a diplomatic or operational de‑escalation could remove part of the geopolitical premium and support cyclical assets, investors should prepare for continued swings. Hedge strategies, focus on liquidity and selective sector allocation — particularly within energy, transport and industrials — are likely to define positioning in the near term as the situation evolves and fresh economic indicators arrive.