Markets: Last week in 7 headlines — global and Turkey developments

Last week global markets were dominated by supply concerns from the Middle East conflict, signals from Fed minutes on policy uncertainty, and sharp swings in energy prices. In Turkey, official economic messaging and regulatory steps by the Capital Markets Board shaped investor sentiment.

The Federal Reserve’s minutes from the March meeting showed some officials were willing to keep the option of further tightening on the table given persistent inflation risks and the potential inflationary impact of higher energy prices; that contributed to volatile rate expectations. At the same time, disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on regional energy infrastructure pushed crude prices sharply higher until ceasefire hopes triggered rapid reversals.

In Turkey, the market reaction mixed risk aversion to higher energy-driven inflation with relief from policy continuity signals. The Capital Markets Board extended restrictions on short selling and kept flexibility on margin requirements to contain disorderly moves, while Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek’s remarks at the international economic summit emphasized commitment to the adopted macro framework — messages that helped temper downside pressure on local assets.

Taken in a broader context, these events underscore the dilemma facing central banks: energy-driven price shocks increase inflationary pressure just as growth concerns argue for easier settings. Prolonged supply disruptions would complicate the trade-off and could force some authorities to shift to tighter stances, while a durable de-escalation would relieve the immediate risk premium in commodity and financial markets. Institutional forecasts and major banks continue to warn of elevated volatility in commodities and inflation pass-through.

Market strategists say near-term direction will depend on the ceasefire durability, any further details in Fed communications and incoming Turkish macro prints. Until risk parameters around the Strait of Hormuz normalize and central bank signals clarify, they recommend active liquidity management and selective sector exposure, with attention to energy, banking and externally sensitive exporters in Turkey.