India Drives Global Surge in Planned Coal Production Capacity

A new report from Global Energy Monitor reveals a significant global increase in planned coal production capacity in 2025, primarily driven by India. Despite a plateau in worldwide coal demand and new mine openings hitting a decade low, India's nearly doubled proposals for new coal mines propelled global supply capacity to 2.521 billion tonnes per annum (Mtpa), marking an 11% rise.

This substantial increase was largely attributed to a doubling of mine proposals in India's states of Jharkhand and Odisha. The Indian Ministry of Coal is pursuing an ambitious plan to boost the country's coal output, targeting 1.15 billion tonnes of raw coal production for the 2025-26 fiscal year and 1.5 billion tonnes by 2030. India's planned coal capacity surged from 329 Mtpa in 2024 to 638 Mtpa in 2025. This expansion comes at a time when global new coal mine commissioning (actual operational startups) fell by 40% in 2025 to 113 Mtpa, reaching its lowest in a decade, largely due to slowdowns in China and Australia.

The potential market implications of these developments are considerable. Despite the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast that global coal demand will plateau by 2030, this planned capacity expansion poses a significant risk of "stranded assets" due to potential overproduction. Experts at Global Energy Monitor warn that this situation could expose governments, companies, and investors to increased economic risks and market volatility. The report highlights that approximately 70% of proposed global coal mining projects remain in pre-construction phases, indicating substantial risks in a rapidly evolving energy market.

India's move is seen as an effort to meet its escalating electricity demand, driven by economic growth and increasingly frequent and severe heatwaves. However, this strategy conflicts with global renewable energy transition efforts and climate targets. In a landmark moment, wind and solar power surpassed coal in the global electricity mix for the first time in 2025. While China and India have played significant roles in increasing renewable energy capacities, the United States and Europe reportedly continue to rely more heavily on fossil fuels.

Analysts and market expectations suggest that the economic rationale for expanding coal mining is progressively weakening as low-cost clean energy continues to displace coal. Global Energy Monitor emphasizes that advancing more coal mining capacity in the current market climate risks creating long-lived assets that could become increasingly uneconomic over time. In the coming period, the decisions made by India and other major coal-producing nations regarding the balance between energy security and climate goals will significantly influence the trajectory of the global energy market and the fight against climate change.