Houthi Attacks Break Four-Year Truce in Saudi Arabia, Igniting Oil Market Fears

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi movement has launched missile attacks on Saudi Arabia, effectively ending a four-year informal truce in the region. This development comes in retaliation for alleged Saudi airstrikes on the Houthi-controlled Sanaa International Airport. The Saudi-led coalition, however, stated that the missiles were intercepted, posing no threat to the kingdom's southern region.

The attacks, which occurred on Monday, July 13, 2026, targeted Saudi Arabia's Abha International Airport and two military bases in the southern part of the country. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree declared these strikes a direct response to Saudi Arabia's alleged airstrikes on Sanaa Airport, warning airlines operating in Saudi airspace to cease flights until the blockade on Sanaa Airport is lifted. Conversely, Yemen's internationally recognized government, backed by Saudi Arabia, claimed the Sanaa International Airport runway was targeted to prevent an Iranian aircraft from landing in violation of Yemeni sovereignty. The Iranian plane reportedly later landed at Hodeidah airport, which is under Houthi control.

This escalation has triggered significant concerns in global energy markets. WTI and Brent crude oil prices surged by over 6% intraday following reports of the attacks. Brent crude climbed above $78 per barrel, while WTI futures rose to approximately $73.11–$73.26. Market participants are apprehensive about potential disruptions to global oil supply, especially given the region's critical role in energy production. Concerns over the security of Red Sea shipping routes have also resurfaced, as Houthis have previously targeted vessels in these waters. While Saudi Arabia has managed to sustain oil exports using an east-to-west pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, a wider conflict could severely challenge this capability.

The latest flare-up is set against the backdrop of a decade-long civil war in Yemen and the Houthis' continued backing by Iran. The Saudi-led coalition has been actively involved in the conflict against the Houthis since 2015. Regional tensions were already heightened due to the Israel-Gaza war and broader geopolitical conflicts. The United States has consistently supported Saudi Arabia's right to self-defense, and the Trump administration's re-designation of the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization provided additional tools to exert financial and military pressure on the group.

Analysts warn of a high risk of renewed conflict along Saudi Arabia's southern border, which could lead to sustained volatility in the oil market and increased concerns over supply disruptions. The international community views the escalation with apprehension, with the UN Security Council expressing concern about the risk of a wider escalation and calling on all actors to engage constructively in negotiations under UN auspices. Furthermore, warnings suggest that a closure of the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, a critical maritime chokepoint, could push global oil prices to $200 per barrel, delivering a swift and painful shock to both oil supplies and prices.