Hormuz Strait Shipping Normalization Hinges on Mine Clearance

The resumption of normal maritime activities in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy markets, is contingent upon the complete removal of the mine threat in the region. Intertanko, the International Association of Independent Tanker Owners, reported that approximately 80 mines remain in the main shipping route of the strait, and their clearance is expected to take considerable time. This situation poses a significant obstacle to the normalization of maritime traffic, even after the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran.

The US and Iran signed an MoU on June 17, 2026, aiming to end hostilities in the region and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. Following this agreement, some vessels began exiting the Persian Gulf through the strait on Thursday. However, Phil Belcher, marine director at Intertanko, stated that the main route through the middle of the strait remains dangerous and closed due to the mines. Iran had laid mines in the Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) in the center of the strait during the conflict. Currently, vessels are forced to use a southern route near the Omani coast, which carries increased risks of grounding and collisions. The MoU stipulates the immediate and permanent termination of military operations, the lifting of the US naval blockade on Iran, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, Iran has been granted a 60-day waiver for oil exports.

The Strait of Hormuz typically handles about one-fifth (20%) of global oil shipments and substantial volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Its closure led to Brent crude oil prices surging past $100 per barrel, peaking at $126. While oil prices have seen some decline following the MoU, industry experts anticipate that a full recovery of global supply chains and energy markets will take months. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated, with insurers demanding solid evidence that the waterway will remain safe before reducing rates.

During the conflict, approximately 20,000 seafarers were stranded on either side of the channel. Iran has announced plans to introduce maritime fees for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz after the initial 60-day toll-free period expires. This move has been criticized by Saudi Arabia and the German container shipping company Hapag-Lloyd, as such tolls are considered illegal under international law. The closure of the strait evoked memories of the unprecedented global trade disruption caused by the container ship Ever Given blocking the Suez Canal in 2021.

Industry analysts do not expect normalization in the Strait of Hormuz to occur this year, citing the lengthy process of mine clearance and the need to clear a backlog of nearly 600 vessels. Mine removal alone could take up to six months. The shipping industry is calling for clear assurances of safe passage and an internationally coordinated framework to manage the resumption of traffic. During this period, uncertainties surrounding global oil and gas supply chains are expected to persist.