Gulf crisis: Australian, New Zealand firms hit from airlines to banks

The escalation of the Gulf crisis has begun to filter through to corporate results in Australia and New Zealand, with higher fuel and freight costs weighing on margins and prompting several profit warnings. Firms across banking, aviation and logistics have signalled rising costs and operational disruption to investors.

National Australia Bank (NAB) said it expects to record A$706 million of credit impairment in the first half of fiscal 2026, which would shave roughly 20 basis points off its common equity tier 1 ratio; the bank also flagged a 1.5% discount to its dividend reinvestment plan as a potential means to raise up to A$1.8 billion. Westpac and other lenders have increased provisioning as energy-market shocks and rate volatility feed through to credit conditions.

Service and infrastructure groups have also felt the impact. Worley estimated an adverse hit to underlying EBITA of about A$30–40 million for fiscal 2026, while Qube Holdings flagged an A$10–20 million effect on EBITA. Auckland International Airport reported an 81% year‑on‑year drop in passenger volumes on Middle Eastern routes in March and a 73% reduction in seat capacity, highlighting the collapse in connectivity. Fletcher Building warned of input-cost driven price rises, with plastics seeing increases as high as 36% and other divisions facing smaller hikes.

These developments are compressing corporate margins, denting business confidence and complicating recovery dynamics in sectors exposed to global trade and travel. Airlines are trimming capacity and adjusting fares as jet fuel prices surge and Gulf airspace disruption forces reroutes. Logistics providers face higher shipping and handling costs while banks monitor rising credit risk amid weaker consumer spending prospects.

Market analysts say sustained higher energy prices would add to inflationary pressures and could slow growth in Australia and New Zealand, increasing the policy trade-offs for central banks. In the near term, focus will remain on company-level provisioning, energy-price trends and any signs of de-escalation in the Gulf that would ease route disruptions and shipping costs. Investors are watching balance-sheet resilience and margin pass-through capacity as key determinants of which firms can weather the shock.