GPS interference in the Persian Gulf: Disrupting navigation and trade

In brief: after the U.S.-Israel strikes on February 28, 2026, the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz experienced widespread GPS and Automatic Identification System (AIS) interference that distorted vessel positions and affected navigation for more than 1,100 ships within a short period.

How the events unfolded: maritime intelligence firms recorded multiple jamming and spoofing clusters that produced false AIS tracks—placing ships erroneously on land, at airports or in sensitive installations—and the number of reported interference incidents rose sharply in the following week, with some analyses citing up to roughly 1,650 affected events across regional waters. The disruptions concentrated around UAE, Oman, Saudi and Iranian coastal areas and created dense vessel clusters outside ports.

Market impact was immediate. Shipowners rerouted or delayed transits, bunker and freight costs rose, and leading protection & indemnity clubs and war-risk insurers limited coverage or raised premiums for transits through the Gulf. Energy markets reacted as well: Brent and WTI benchmarks spiked on supply-risk repricing as tankers avoided the Strait, tightening near-term crude availability and lifting oil risk premia. These moves translated quickly into higher downstream price expectations and short-term volatility in energy-linked assets.

Broader context: the Strait of Hormuz remains a strategic choke point carrying a significant share of global crude and LNG flows, so electronic interference that degrades navigation has outsized economic effects. Beyond shipping, aviation and port operations have had to revert to backup navigation and manual procedures, increasing operational costs and delay risk. State-caliber jamming and spoofing capabilities have elevated the geopolitical premium embedded in regional logistics.

Outlook and analyst views: market strategists warn that if interference and regional military tensions persist, risk premia for oil and shipping will stay elevated, pushing insurers to further constrain coverage and prompting long-term contractual and routing adjustments. Investors should watch shipping insurance spreads, vessel traffic patterns through Hormuz, and near-term Brent/WTI volatility as leading indicators of how prolonged the shock may be.