Goldman Sachs: 60‑Day Hormuz Disruption Could Push Brent to $93

Goldman Sachs analysts warn that a prolonged disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a sharp rise in global crude prices. In a scenario where Persian Gulf exports fall significantly for about 60 days, the bank estimates that Brent crude could climb to roughly $93 per barrel.

The outlook comes as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to raise concerns about potential supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most critical energy chokepoints in the world, handling roughly one‑fifth of global oil shipments. Any interruption to tanker traffic through the strait can therefore have an immediate impact on global energy markets.

According to Goldman Sachs, a meaningful decline in exports from the Persian Gulf could quickly tighten the oil market. Analysts note that several million barrels per day of shipments could be at risk in a severe disruption scenario, amplifying price pressures in the short term.

However, the bank also highlights that alternative pipeline routes and spare production capacity from other producers could partially offset supply losses. In its base outlook, Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to ease over time if flows normalize and global inventories begin to rebuild, although geopolitical risks are likely to keep volatility elevated in the near term.