Gasoline Prices Rise Fast — Persian Gulf War Strains Global Supply

Energy markets were rattled this week after the outbreak of hostilities in the Persian Gulf, a region that supplies a significant share of globally traded oil and gas, and the shock quickly transmitted to retail fuel prices.

The disruption accelerated as maritime routes and refinery sites came under attack; AAA data show the U.S. national average for regular gasoline jumped about 14% in one week to $3.41 per gallon, while crude benchmarks climbed above $90 per barrel on renewed supply fears. Traders demanded higher risk premia as tanker transit risk and insurance costs rose.

The immediate market reaction hit refined-product futures particularly hard: gasoline (RBOB) and diesel contracts rallied, and regional retail markets—especially on the U.S. West Coast—saw outsized increases as limited refinery throughput and logistic bottlenecks amplified the price pass-through to consumers. Equity markets also reflected elevated uncertainty in energy and transportation sectors.

Contextually, the Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most critical oil chokepoint. According to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates, roughly 20 million barrels per day transited the strait in recent measurements—around one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption—so any prolonged closure would represent a large structural supply shock.

Analysts warn that if disruptions persist, Brent and WTI could breach the $100-per-barrel threshold and push refined-product prices higher for an extended period; major banks and policy bodies are evaluating reserve releases and maritime security measures to calm markets. Market participants are now focused on supply restoration, insurance coverage for shipping, and the timing of any coordinated policy response.