France Blocks Polymarket Access Citing Illegal Gambling and Manipulation Risks

France's independent regulatory body, the Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), has instructed internet service providers to block access to the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket. This decision, made on July 16, 2026, and effective July 17, reflects concerns that the platform offers illegal gambling services in France and operates without proper authorization. The ANJ stated that Polymarket could expose users to significant gambling losses and that some wagers offered on the platform could be manipulated.

The ANJ had previously imposed a geoblock on financial transactions from French residents on Polymarket in November 2024. However, despite these restrictions, the platform's popularity among French users continued to grow. The regulator reported 578,751 visits and 205,057 unique visitors from France in June. According to the ANJ, advertising an unauthorized betting or gambling site constitutes a criminal offense, subject to a fine of up to €100,000.

This development is part of a broader global regulatory crackdown on prediction markets. The ANJ's decision highlights that prediction markets exhibit addictive characteristics similar to online gambling but lack the consumer protection mechanisms found in legal markets, such as spending limits, identity verification, and self-exclusion tools. These concerns were further compounded by an investigation launched in May 2026 by the Paris Public Prosecutor's cybercrime unit into allegations of manipulated weather sensors used to fix bets.

Prediction markets are often blockchain-based platforms that allow users to bet on outcomes of various events, ranging from sports matches to political elections and even geopolitical occurrences. Polymarket's annual revenue, exceeding $1 billion, underscores the scale of this market. However, the potential for insider trading and market manipulation is increasingly drawing the attention of regulators. For instance, some US states (e.g., Minnesota, Kentucky) have initiated legal action against prediction markets, while Spain has also temporarily banned access to platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

France's latest move intensifies international discussions regarding the legal status of prediction markets. Many countries are attempting to regulate these platforms by classifying them under traditional gambling laws. Regulators believe that the lack of transparency and accountability in such platforms leaves investors unprotected and threatens the integrity of the financial system. While the blockchain-based nature of platforms like Polymarket complicates oversight, authorities worldwide are striving to adapt their legal frameworks.

Analysts and market observers suggest that this increasing regulatory scrutiny could lead to significant changes within the prediction market sector. Platforms may need to re-evaluate their business models to comply with legal requirements across different jurisdictions. This could entail more geographical restrictions, stricter identity verification processes, and enhanced consumer protection measures in the future. Prediction markets are expected to evolve from legal and ethical gray areas into more transparent and regulated structures.