Economic confidence rises in May in Turkey, monthly index at 97.2

According to data published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), the Economic Confidence Index rose by 0.8% month-on-month to 97.2 in May.

Breakdown of the components shows a mixed picture: consumer confidence edged up by 0.3% to 85.8, while the real sector (manufacturing) confidence climbed 2.4% to 101.0. The services confidence fell by 0.6% to 109.0, retail trade confidence increased 0.8% to 112.5, and construction confidence declined 1.7% to 82.1. These sub-indices are weighted to produce the composite economic confidence figure.

Remaining below the 100 threshold, the index signals that overall sentiment in the economy is still mildly pessimistic despite the monthly improvement. The May increase can be seen as a tentative recovery from the low levels observed in July 2025, yet a 97.2 reading does not indicate a broad-based confidence revival.

The data should be interpreted against a backdrop of persistent inflationary pressures and uncertain domestic demand. Consumer sentiment remaining well under 100 suggests household spending may not see a strong rebound immediately, even as manufacturing sentiment shows some resilience. Weakness in services and construction underscores the uneven nature of the recovery.

Market commentators note that while this release is unlikely to trigger pronounced immediate market moves, it is an important forward-looking gauge for policymakers and investors. Continued monitoring of upcoming industrial output, employment and inflation data will be key to determining whether confidence can sustainably move above the 100 optimism threshold.