Crypto Clarity bill: Hammond sees ~30% chance it passes this year

Ron Hammond, head of policy and advocacy at Wintermute, said the CLARITY bill — the U.S. market-structure legislation for digital assets — has roughly a 30% chance of becoming law this year. Hammond stressed that although drafts show progress, political friction and timing risks have made him cautious about the bill's path to enactment.

In interviews and podcasts Hammond outlined how the bill's journey has evolved: Senate committee drafts, amendments to allocate authority between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and ongoing negotiations over DeFi protections and stablecoin provisions. He warned that even if a committee markup occurs, reconciling Senate and House language and surviving floor votes would remain difficult given competing stakeholder interests.

Market participants are already responding to the uncertainty. Debates over whether certain stablecoin yield provisions will favor banks or crypto platforms have created volatility in expectation markets, while policy delays raise the prospect of deferred institutional onboarding and product launches that had assumed regulatory clarity. Prediction markets and some institutional trackers show divergent odds, highlighting how political signals and lobbying dynamics feed into price discovery.

More broadly, the CLARITY debate sits at the intersection of congressional calendars, agency jurisdictional fights and the administration's stance. Observers note that a crowded legislative schedule, possible appropriations conflicts and high-profile political sensitivities around crypto-linked businesses could all push a final vote beyond the current window, reducing the bill's chance of passage this year. Hammond framed these as practical timing and political constraints rather than purely technical objections.

Analysts expect the near-term outlook to hinge on committee timings and whether negotiators can produce a compromise that balances bank concerns with industry protections. Hammond's roughly 30% estimate reflects a cautious market view: progress is visible, but material legal and political hurdles remain, so investors and firms should price in continued regulatory uncertainty while monitoring committee milestones closely.