Crypto CLARITY Act Passage Odds Jump to 43% on Trump Ethics Deal Reports

The likelihood of the CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) becoming law in the U.S. this year surged to 43% on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket. This increase follows unverified reports that former President Donald Trump has agreed to ethics provisions within the bill, signaling a potential breakthrough for the legislation aimed at establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework for the digital asset market.

The CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) passed the U.S. House of Representatives in July 2025 and received bipartisan approval from the Senate Banking Committee in May 2026. However, disagreements over ethics provisions concerning federal officials' involvement in digital assets had stalled the bill's progress in the Senate. Particularly, the disclosure of former President Trump's substantial digital asset earnings, reportedly up to $1.4 billion last year, intensified demands from Democrats and some Republicans for robust ethical safeguards.

Due to these political impasses and the lack of clarity on the bill's text, Polymarket's passage odds had plummeted to a record low of 24% in July, hovering around 31-32% over the past weekend. The recent reports suggesting President Trump's acceptance of these ethics provisions have seemingly removed a major obstacle. However, it is noted that Democrats have yet to see the revised bill text, and no official statement has been released by the White House, maintaining an element of uncertainty. The U.S. Senate aims to bring the bill to a vote before its summer recess on August 10.

The CLARITY Act is designed to provide long-awaited legal clarity for the U.S. crypto market. It seeks to delineate the jurisdictional boundaries between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for digital assets. Industry representatives have consistently argued that this regulatory void hinders institutional investment and stifles innovation. Some analysts project Bitcoin (BTC) price targets of up to $200,000 and billions in exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows if the bill passes. Hopes for the bill's progress had seen Bitcoin's price climb above $66,000.

The legislative process for crypto regulations in the U.S. has historically been challenging and slow-moving. This particular bill represents a bipartisan effort despite ongoing political disagreements. The tight timeline before the August legislative recess adds pressure to negotiations, requiring lawmakers to act swiftly. The ethics debate has once again highlighted concerns regarding potential conflicts of interest for public officials involved in digital assets.

The Polymarket odds remaining at 43% indicate that significant hurdles still lie ahead for the bill. This probability reflects not just Senate approval but the entire legislative journey, including potential amendments, reconciliation with the House version, and a presidential signature. Analysts like Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital had previously revised down their passage estimates due to calendar constraints. Industry leaders, including Coinbase Vice Chair Ryan VanGrack and Blockchain Association CEO Summer Mersinger, continue to advocate for the bill's passage, emphasizing its critical importance for consumer protection and market integrity.