Crude oil prices supported as Strait of Hormuz remains closed

Crude oil and gasoline futures recovered from early losses and traded higher today; July WTI (CLN26) was up +0.37 (+0.42%) while July RBOB gasoline (RBN26) rose +0.0168 (+0.55%). The rebound followed U.S. forces striking Iranian military targets for the second time this week and Kuwait saying its air defences were responding to missile and drone threats. Market data provider Barchart and Reuters reported the intraday moves.

According to U.S. officials cited by Reuters, U.S. Central Command forces shot down four Iranian one‑way attack drones and struck a ground control station near Bandar Abbas that was preparing to launch another drone; officials described the actions as measured and defensive. Kuwaiti military statements and reporting by the Associated Press said Kuwait faced missile and drone activity and its defences were active. These events underscored the fragility of the ceasefire and heightened short‑term risk perceptions.

The market reaction was volatile: oil had earlier slid on reports of a possible deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but the news of fresh strikes and regional intercepts sent prices back up; Reuters cited U.S. crude futures near $90.38 a barrel in early Asian trade. Barchart’s live quotes for CLN26 and RBN26 reflected the intra‑day swing as traders re‑priced supply risk.

The continued effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz keeps a structural risk premium on energy prices because the waterway formerly handled about a fifth of seaborne crude and LNG flows. Until a durable, verifiable agreement that secures safe commercial passage is in place, shipping insurance, rerouting costs and regional military posturing will continue to influence physical markets and prompt precautionary buying.

Analysts warn of sustained volatility and stress that markets will be reactive to any confirmed diplomatic progress or new military escalations. Brokers and energy analysts expect short‑term upside risk to prices amid limited spare tanker capacity and persistent logistical constraints; investors will watch ceasefire negotiations, regional incident reports and macro data that could alter risk appetite. Sector participants also flag that higher insurance and transport costs could squeeze refinery margins in coming weeks.