Cotton futures retreat — USDA 13.539M RB ginned weighs on market

Cotton futures retreated on Tuesday, with front-month contracts falling between roughly 105 and 145 points as traders digested demand concerns and broader risk-off sentiment that pressured the natural-fibre complex.

Trading across nearby and deferred delivery months showed heightened volatility, with significant intraday swings as market participants weighed profit-taking against fundamental signals. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Cotton Ginnings annual summary, released May 12, 2026, reported total running bales ginned for the 2025 crop at 13,539,200 RB—information that has helped reshape expectations about U.S. cotton supply.

Currency and energy market moves contributed to the session’s dynamics. A firmer U.S. dollar supported by stronger broad-market flows put pressure on dollar-priced commodities, while crude oil price swings affected the competitiveness of synthetic fibres versus cotton; the dollar index and WTI oil traded near the levels reported in market data providers during the session. These cross-commodity linkages amplified cotton’s sensitivity to macro shifts.

The USDA data includes state-level running bale totals and average bale weights, and the 13.539 million RB headline figure points to a substantial U.S. ginning season. For traders and downstream buyers, the key question is how quickly these ginned bales will feed into exports and mill consumption versus adding to available stocks that could weigh on cash and futures prices.

Market analysts say volatility is likely to persist until clearer demand signals emerge from export sales, certified stocks updates and upcoming crop/consumption reports. In the near term, expect technical retracements and cautious positioning; a sustained improvement in global textile demand or faster-than-expected export shipments would be needed to reverse the downside pressure.