CLARITY Act: Galaxy says Senate passage hinges on 7 Democrats

Galaxy Digital’s research note warns that passage of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate now depends on a narrow arithmetic of votes: with Republicans holding a slim majority, the bill would need at least seven Democrats to join to reach the 60‑vote threshold and, in Galaxy’s assessment, carries roughly a 50% chance of becoming law in 2026. Although the measure cleared the House in July 2025, momentum in the Senate slowed after industry objections and a high‑profile withdrawal of support in January.

The legislative trajectory has been shaped by committee dynamics and substantive drafting disputes. The House passed the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act on July 17, 2025, with a 294‑134 vote and 78 Democrats in favor, but the Senate requires broader bipartisan backing. In mid‑January 2026, Coinbase announced it could not support the Senate Banking draft, citing concerns including restrictions on tokenized equities, potential DeFi prohibitions and the handling of stablecoin yields; the announcement contributed to a postponed markup and renewed negotiations. Galaxy’s April 22, 2026 research update highlights unresolved issues ranging from developer protections to stablecoin reward language.

Market implications are immediate: regulatory clarity could unlock institutional capital by delineating SEC and CFTC jurisdiction and introducing clearer registration and compliance pathways, while delays prolong uncertainty for investors and trading venues. Research and market commentary note that a durable framework would likely boost custody flows and long‑term allocations from traditional asset managers; conversely, a stalled or weakened bill could keep capital on the sidelines and sustain elevated volatility in crypto markets.

In the broader political context, the CLARITY Act sits at the intersection of fintech policy and election‑year politics. Disagreements over stablecoin yield restrictions, ethics provisions for government officials’ crypto holdings, and the scope of Treasury and regulator powers have complicated compromise. Galaxy warns that a change in Senate committee leadership after midterm elections could materially alter the bill’s prospects, making the current legislative window critical for proponents.

Analysts identify several near‑term milestones that will determine the outcome: release of revised stablecoin language, the scheduling and result of a Banking Committee markup, any subsequent committee reconciliations with the Agriculture panel, and finally floor time and reconciliation with the House text. Galaxy’s view is that the process must proceed rapidly and in sequence to maintain a credible path to enactment in 2026; missing key committee windows would substantially lower the odds of passage.