CFTC sees mixed responses to prediction market rulemaking (US)

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) published an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) in March seeking public comment on how event contracts traded on prediction markets should be treated under the Commodity Exchange Act and existing rules. The agency framed the move as the start of a rulemaking process to ensure coherent oversight.

The comment period ran for 45 days and closed on April 30, 2026. According to public filings and contemporary reporting, the CFTC received more than 1,500 submissions from a diverse set of stakeholders including prediction market operators, crypto firms, major sports leagues and players’ unions, tribal entities, consumer groups and academics. Submissions showed a clear split: some urged robust federal oversight and preservation of markets as hedging/forecasting tools, while others pressed for stricter limits on sports-related or integrity-sensitive contracts.

Regulatory developments come against a backdrop of rapid product growth: CFTC materials and industry analyses note that designated contract markets listed roughly 1,600 event contracts in 2025, evidence of expanding activity that regulators say raises manipulation and consumer protection questions. Potential rule changes could narrow permissible contract types or impose enhanced surveillance and participant controls, raising compliance costs for platforms.

The issue also has a legal and federalism dimension: the CFTC has publicly defended its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets and has confronted several state efforts to restrict the platforms, signaling likely court battles over regulatory scope. Chair Michael Selig and agency officials have emphasized the need for federal clarity rather than a patchwork of state rules.

Market observers expect the agency to use the extensive public record to craft targeted regulations addressing market integrity, insider trading risks and the public-interest standard for prohibited contracts. Depending on comment analysis and further staff work, the next steps could include formal rule proposals, targeted guidance for designated contract markets (DCMs) and increased enforcement scrutiny. Platforms, leagues and investors should prepare for a more prescriptive federal framework.