Bitcoin Weekly RSI: Critical Threshold for Bottom Remains Uncrossed

In the Bitcoin (BTC) market, investors closely monitor technical indicators to determine the direction of price movements. Among these, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands out as a key signal for whether the asset has truly bottomed. Recent analyses indicate that Bitcoin's weekly RSI continues to trade below a critical level that reliably distinguishes between bull and bear market regimes. This situation reinforces interpretations that, despite some signs of recovery, the macro trend has not yet fully shifted to bullish.

According to Keith Alan, an analyst at crypto data analytics platform Material Indicators, the 41.5 level on Bitcoin's 14-week RSI has consistently separated bullish and bearish market phases. Above this level, BTC has historically had a stronger argument for being in a bullish macro trend, while below it, bearish pressure tends to dominate. Currently, the weekly RSI is around 34 and remains below this critical threshold. This does not necessarily mean the price must collapse, but it implies that the burden of proof is still on the bulls.

This technical indicator serves as an important guide for market participants. Notably, during the bull runs of 2015-17, 2020-21, and 2024-25, the RSI held above 41.5, whereas during the most intense phases of bear markets in late 2018 and May-December 2022, it consistently traded below this level. A recovery of the weekly RSI back above 41.5 would be considered the first meaningful signal that Bitcoin's broader trend is turning bullish and that a bottom has been established.

While Bitcoin's price has recently been trading around $63,000, showing short-term recovery attempts, the lack of confirmation from the weekly RSI is causing many investors to remain cautious. Similar to how economists confirm a new expansion with quarterly GDP data after a recession, in the crypto market, specific indicators are awaited to confirm whether a price bounce is the beginning of a new bull run or merely a relief rally within a broader downtrend.

The broader economic context for this situation also includes Bitcoin's current position near its 200-week moving average (MA). This level has historically served as a significant bottom area during the bear markets of 2015, 2018, and 2020. Analysts suggest that the 200-week moving average represents an ideal long-term accumulation zone. Furthermore, potential early signals like 'bullish divergence,' where the price makes lower lows while the RSI makes higher lows, are being observed. This could indicate weakening selling pressure and is seen as a similar signal that preceded a rally of over 700% after the FTX collapse in 2022.

Analysts' expectations and market sentiments vary. Some believe that the bullish divergence on the weekly chart is a strong signal that could propel Bitcoin towards a $90,000 target. However, others emphasize that breaking above the resistance range of $64,000-$65,000, and particularly the weekly RSI clearing the 41.5 level, is crucial for a more robust confirmation of an upward trend. Downside risks, such as a weekly bear flag pattern, also persist, and if this pattern continues to play out, Bitcoin's theoretical target could still fall below $50,000.