Bitcoin Price May Hit $24K If US Stock Market Crashes by 50%, Analyst Warns

A concerning scenario has emerged in the cryptocurrency markets. Technical analyst Jesse Olson has issued a severe warning that Bitcoin's (BTC) price could fall to as low as $23,980 if the US stock market experiences a crash exceeding 50%. This potential decline highlights Bitcoin's sensitivity to market stress.

Olson bases this price level on his proprietary Market Sniper Pro VWAP indicator, stating that it could become a critical support point in the event of a major market sell-off. The analyst's technical outlook aligns with a long-term, volume-weighted average price (aVWAP) line anchored from Bitcoin's 2022 bear-market bottom, forming a reference zone that traders can monitor for price action.

Further supporting this bearish outlook are the observed weak flows from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the cautious stance of institutional investors. Recent data indicates that US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a record $6.35 billion in net outflows over the past 30 days, marking the largest 30-day outflow period since their launch in January 2024. Additionally, total net ETF outflows of $4.68 billion in 2026 reflect a lack of confidence among professional investors. The persistently negative Coinbase Premium Index also points to weak institutional interest.

The broader global economic context is also adding pressure on Bitcoin. Economist Gary Shilling warns that a US recession is almost inevitable, with stocks at risk of a 20-30% decline. Such a macroeconomic downturn could further exacerbate selling pressure on Bitcoin. Moreover, JPMorgan analysts anticipate that Bitcoin miners might be forced to sell more Bitcoin due to worsening profitability, which could introduce additional selling pressure into the market.

Market analysts and experts suggest that under current conditions, large investors remain cautious, and risk appetite is subdued. With Bitcoin's price retreating below the $60,000 levels, market participants are closely monitoring for signs of a potential rebound. However, weak ETF flows and low institutional demand could hinder Bitcoin from gaining significant upward momentum in the near term. Upcoming economic data from the US and central bank monetary policy decisions will be crucial in determining Bitcoin's price trajectory.

This outlook suggests that Bitcoin's increasing integration with traditional financial markets may render it more vulnerable to global economic shocks. Investors should closely track the potential impact of major corrections in US stock markets and shifts in institutional flows on Bitcoin's performance.