Bitcoin Holds $64,000 as Stocks Hit Records and Hormuz Deal Nears

Optimistic signals from ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have brought significant relief to global markets. These diplomatic developments led to a notable drop in oil prices while stock markets recorded new highs. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin maintained a stable trajectory around the $64,000 level, despite the broader market euphoria.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Qatari officials expressed optimism that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached soon, possibly “today or tomorrow” (August 4-5, 2026). U.S. President Donald Trump also confirmed progress in the talks. Following these reports, international benchmark Brent crude (BRN00) and West Texas Intermediate (CL.1) oil prices retreated significantly. Brent futures fell below $79, while WTI declined towards $75, with both benchmarks shedding over 5% in the prior two sessions.

This decline in oil prices, with its potential to reduce costs, provided a strong impetus to global stock markets. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) hit a new record high of 7,713, with its market capitalization reaching $70 trillion for the first time. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) also posted considerable gains. The MSCI World Index (MSCI World Index) also reached new peaks, climbing to 4981.77 as of August 4, 2026.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD), however, showed a more subdued performance compared to the stock market rally, consolidating around $64,000. The cryptocurrency traded between its 21-day simple moving average near $64,388, acting as resistance, and support provided by its 50-day simple moving average. On-chain data indicated “strong accumulation” among investors in the $62,000-$65,000 cost-basis band. This suggests an absorption of selling pressure rather than capitulation, with buyers showing interest in dips.

Conversely, Ethereum (ETHUSD) stood out as the only major cryptocurrency to experience a weekly decline. Trading near $1,872 as of August 4, 2026, Ethereum found itself caught between short-term recovery attempts and a heavier macroeconomic backdrop. Market expectations suggested Ethereum might see a recovery towards $1,900 in August, though the likelihood of surpassing $2,100 was diminishing. This indicates that Ethereum remained more fragile compared to Bitcoin's stability and the exuberance in equity markets.

The easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the drop in oil prices could alleviate pressure on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) inflation-fighting policies. Market participants are closely monitoring how these developments will influence the Fed's likelihood of a rate hike (0.25%) at its September meeting. Overall, the de-escalation of geopolitical risks is seen as a positive sign for the global economic outlook, potentially increasing demand for risk assets, although the crypto market's reaction has been varied.